The southwest monsoon made an early arrival over India this year, hitting Kerala on Saturday, May 25, marking the earliest onset over the Indian mainland since 2009, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced.
Typically, the monsoon reaches Kerala by June 1, but 2025 has bucked the trend, joining only a handful of years when the rainy season arrived ahead of schedule. The last time it arrived this early was in 2009, and even earlier in 1990 when it hit Kerala on May 19—13 days before the usual date.
While this development has generated optimism, meteorologists caution that the onset date has no direct correlation with the total rainfall during the season. “The early arrival of the monsoon in Kerala does not guarantee a faster or stronger spread across the rest of the country,” an IMD official noted. “The monsoon is influenced by a complex interplay of global, regional, and local climate factors.”
Recent Onset Trends
According to IMD data:
- In 2024, the monsoon arrived on May 30.
- In 2023, it arrived late, on June 8.
- It reached Kerala on May 29 in 2022, June 3 in 2021, and June 1 in 2020.
- The onset date was June 8 in 2019 and May 29 in 2018.
Rainfall Predictions and Historical Data
Despite the early onset, the IMD maintains that rainfall this monsoon season is expected to be above normal, with no signs of El Niño conditions—which are typically linked to deficient rainfall in India.
According to IMD classifications:
- Normal rainfall is between 96–104% of the long-period average (LPA) of 87 cm.
- Deficient is less than 90% of the LPA.
- Below normal ranges from 90%–95%.
- Above normal is between 105%–110%.
- Excess is more than 110%.
India recorded 934.8 mm of rainfall in 2024, equating to 108% of the average—the highest since 2020. Previous years saw varied figures: 820 mm in 2023 (94.4%), 925 mm in 2022, 870 mm in 2021, and 958 mm in 2020.
Why It Matters
The monsoon is vital for India’s agriculture sector, which sustains about 42% of the population and contributes 18.2% to the national GDP. It also plays a key role in replenishing reservoirs that are crucial for drinking water supply and hydroelectric power generation across the country.
With an early start and a forecast for above-normal rainfall, farmers, policymakers, and utility planners will be watching closely to see if the monsoon delivers on its promise this year.
Sources By Agencies
